10 indicators defining Ghana’s current economic outlook

However, cedi depreciation, persistent bad loans and exposure to global commodity prices remain risks to the outlook.

The Bank of Ghana’s September 2026 Monetary Policy Report provides a snapshot of these developments.

It highlights gains in economic activity and financial conditions, while pointing to challenges that could shape the next phase of the recovery.

The Bank of Ghana has maintained its Monetary Policy Rate at 14 per cent, pausing further cuts after a significant easing cycle. The rate has fallen from 25 per cent in July 2025. The decision reflects the central bank’s effort to support economic activity while protecting gains in price stability. Global energy market volatility and geopolitical tensions remain key risks to the inflation outlook.

Headline inflation currently stands at 5.2 per cent. This was after it rose to 5 per cent in August from 4.6 per cent in July. Non-food inflation increased to 6.8 per cent, while food inflation eased to 3 per cent. Inflation remains below the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 6 to 10 per cent. However, higher energy costs and utility tariff adjustments could put renewed pressure on household budgets and business operating costs.

Ghana’s real GDP grew by 6 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, supported mainly by the services and industry sectors. The Bank of Ghana’s Composite Index of Economic Activity also grew by 14.9 per cent year-on-year in July, compared with 6.1 per cent a year earlier. The figures point to stronger economic momentum. The next challenge is to translate that growth into more jobs, higher productivity and improved living standards.

Ghana’s trade surplus reached approximately US$8.8 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up from US$6.69 billion over the same period in 2025. Total export earnings rose to about US$22.39 billion, supported by gold receipts of US$14.86 billion. The stronger trade position provides an important source of foreign exchange. However, the economy remains exposed to fluctuations in global commodity prices. Expanding non-traditional exports and local processing will be important for sustaining these gains.

The cedi depreciated by 7.11 per cent against the US dollar, 7.78 per cent against the British pound and 6.09 per cent against the euro on the interbank market in the year to August. The figures highlight a key challenge for the economy. Strong export earnings have not eliminated currency pressures, with foreign exchange demand and external shocks continuing to influence the market. Sustained foreign exchange inflows and effective demand management will be critical to supporting the cedi.

Average bank lending rates fell to 15.9 per cent in August from 24.2 per cent a year earlier. Real private-sector credit growth accelerated to 29 per cent, compared with 1.7 per cent in August 2025. The improvement points to more favourable financing conditions for businesses. However, the impact will depend on whether credit supports productive investment, business expansion and job creation. Banks must also ensure that faster lending does not lead to another build-up of bad loans.

Provisional fiscal data for January to July 2026 showed an overall deficit of 0.2 per cent of GDP, below the programmed target of 1.9 per cent. The primary balance on a commitment basis recorded a surplus of 1.4 per cent of GDP, exceeding the fiscal anchor target of 0.2 per cent. The figures point to improved fiscal performance. Sustaining the gains will require stronger revenue mobilisation and spending discipline without undermining investment needed to support growth.

Total banking sector assets increased by 20.5 per cent year-on-year to GH¢500.2 billion at the end of August. The capital adequacy ratio rose to 19.1 per cent, above the regulatory minimum of 13 per cent. The non-performing loan ratio also declined to 15.7 per cent from 20.8 per cent a year earlier. These indicators point to improved resilience. However, bad loans remain significant, while credit risks in agriculture remain elevated. Continued improvement in asset quality will be essential to support sustainable lending.

Banks’ profit after tax reportedly declined by 5.7 per cent to GH¢9.2 billion. Net interest income fell by 4.2 per cent, while fee and commission income increased by 17.9 per cent. The figures suggest that lower interest rates are reshaping banks’ earnings. Cheaper borrowing can support businesses and households, but it can also narrow lending margins. Banks will need to diversify revenue while maintaining efficient operations and transparent pricing.

The Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index rose by 105.7 per cent year-on-year to 15,076.3 points at the end of August 2026. The Financial Stocks Index gained 131.7 per cent, while total market capitalisation reportedly reached GH¢285.58 billion. The rally signals stronger investor appetite for equities. Lower fixed-income yields and expectations of improved corporate performance may be encouraging investors to shift towards shares. However, sustained gains will depend on corporate earnings, market liquidity and investor confidence.

The Bank of Ghana’s September 2026 report points to an economy benefiting from relatively low inflation, stronger growth, rising export earnings and improved credit conditions. But the recovery remains exposed to currency pressures, commodity price swings and persistent bad loans. Fiscal discipline will also be important in sustaining macroeconomic stability.